Possible scenario
War Intensifies
15%
−1.4%
Diplomacy breaks down and Russia uses the talks to justify renewed pressure on the battlefield. This is less likely than a stalemate or procedural talks, but still plausible given Moscow’s recent demand for all of Donbas and Kyiv’s refusal to cede territory.
What it moves
- Energy+1.7%
- Finance−1.7%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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