Possible scenario
Sustained Grid Campaign
45% Chance
Russia continues using large drone salvos to pressure Ukraine's electricity system before winter, with Kyiv and surrounding regions facing repeated outages. This is the most likely path because it fits Moscow's recent pattern of targeting power infrastructure without requiring a wider strategic shift.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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