Possible scenario
Retaliatory Escalation
18% Chance
Ukraine responds with longer-range drone strikes on Russian military logistics, refineries, or power-related infrastructure. This remains less likely than a contained cycle, but the pattern of reciprocal infrastructure strikes makes some escalation plausible.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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