Possible scenario
Regional Escalation Risk
20% Chance
The Houthis respond to mobilization and Saudi airstrikes by widening the conflict beyond current ground battles. Missile, drone, or maritime threats raise concern about Red Sea shipping and Saudi energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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