Possible scenario
Limited Frontline Stalemate
45% Chance
The parliamentary vote formalizes recruitment and logistics for the Presidential Leadership Council, but it does not quickly alter the balance of power. Saudi air support and Houthi caution keep the conflict mostly contained to existing frontlines.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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