• 

  38%

  +0.4%

  Centralized Policy Push

  The most likely outcome is that Stephen Miller uses the end of his recusals to consolidate White House control over AI and space policy. This would build on the administration’s June move toward stronger federal AI oversight and its December effort to limit state AI rules.

  Technology +0.8% · Industrials +0.5% · Business Services +0.2%

• 

  27%

  −0.4%

  Ethics Backlash Returns

  The reversal of Miller’s recusals draws scrutiny from congressional Democrats, watchdog groups and former ethics officials. Because the recusals were disclosed only days earlier, opponents frame the reversal as a conflict-of-interest issue tied to space and AI decisions.

  Technology −0.7% · Industrials −0.7% · Business Services −0.1%

• 

  22%

  −0.1%

  Security-First Direction

  Miller’s return to AI and space policy could shift the emphasis from commercial deregulation toward national security, export controls and federal procurement. That outcome would create winners in defense technology while raising compliance costs for chip, cloud and frontier-model companies.

  Industrials +0.8% · Business Services +0.4% · Technology −0.3%

• 

  13%

  0.0%

  Narrow Waiver Holds

  The least disruptive outcome is that the White House frames the decision as a narrow administrative waiver. Miller can participate in broad policy discussions, but he remains walled off from specific contracting or enforcement actions involving named companies.

  Technology +0.1% · Industrials +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.