Possible scenario
Visa Pragmatism Prevails
40% Chance
Washington treats the 34% Chinese-talent share as a competitiveness risk rather than a reason for a blanket crackdown. The most likely path is a narrower national-security screen paired with new retention tools for PhD-level AI workers, because U.S. labs remain dependent on foreign-born researchers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.8%
- Business Services +0.5%
Tickers
- MSFT+2.1%
- +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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