Possible scenario
Security Crackdown Broadens
25% Chance
Security agencies conclude that workforce dependence on Chinese-origin talent creates unacceptable leakage risk in frontier AI. The response is not a full immigration ban, but expanded vetting, grant restrictions, and compliance burdens for firms working on advanced models or defense-linked AI.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.9%
- Industrials -1.0%
- Business Services -0.7%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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