Possible scenario
Donor Hearing Damages Paxton
20% Chance
The federal hearing involving the $190,000 donor produces testimony, exhibits, or admissions that make the campaign's denial harder to sustain. This scenario is less likely than a contained political fight, but it would materially increase campaign and legal scrutiny.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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