Possible scenario
Russian limited retaliation
30% Chance
Russia responds politically and diplomatically, but avoids a military or energy escalation directly tied to the UK announcement. This is consistent with prior targeted human-rights sanctions, which usually produce reciprocal lists and rhetoric rather than immediate market-moving retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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