Possible scenario
UN Mediation Resumes
18% Chance
Oman and the UN Special Envoy press Ansarallah and the internationally recognized government to prevent the fall of Taiz from becoming a wider escalation. The most plausible diplomatic result is a narrow humanitarian arrangement rather than a comprehensive ceasefire.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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