Possible scenario
Emergency De-Escalation
25% Chance
Oman, the UN, and Washington push both sides toward a short humanitarian pause and back-channel talks. Saudi Arabia increases air defenses and security screening but delays large retaliation to test whether Houthi leaders will halt attacks on civilian infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.2%
- Energy -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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