Possible scenario
Calibrated Saudi Retaliation
40% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds with targeted air and missile strikes against Houthi launch sites, command nodes, and drone storage facilities in Yemen while avoiding a full ground campaign. Riyadh seeks to restore deterrence after the airport casualties but keeps the operation limited to avoid direct disruption to oil exports.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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