Election Integrity Fight
−0.2%
The videos become part of a contested-election narrative in one or more close Senate races. This outcome has lower probability than containment, but it is realistic because the campaign is aimed at competitive races where small perception shifts can be politically consequential.
What it moves
- Technology+0.1%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.