Possible scenario
Coercive Peace Push
27% Chance
Trump's framing of Putin as more peace-minded than Zelensky may precede a renewed U.S. attempt to force negotiations. The White House could use suspended aid, intelligence sharing, or diplomatic pressure to push Kyiv toward a ceasefire framework.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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