Possible scenario
Rhetoric Without Policy
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Trump continues to criticize Zelensky and downplay Russian culpability, but the White House does not immediately announce a new Ukraine policy. Markets treat the comments as political messaging rather than a fresh military or sanctions shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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