Possible scenario
Oversight Pressure Builds
25% Chance
Bailey's resignation becomes part of a broader congressional fight over FBI independence under Patel and the Trump Justice Department. Democrats and some civil-liberties groups use the departure to demand records on personnel decisions, political referrals, and enforcement priorities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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