Possible scenario
Oil Flows Stabilize
27% Chance
A U.S.-European naval escort system and quiet Gulf diplomacy reduce the immediate risk premium in crude. Airlines rebound as fuel-cost fears ease, though the war keeps hedging costs and insurance premiums above prewar levels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.1%
- Energy -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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