Possible scenario
Conflict Disrupts Energy
22% Chance
The key downside risk is a fresh military or shipping incident that pushes crude materially higher. Airlines face another earnings reset, while energy equities benefit from the supply shock and broader risk assets weaken.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.