Possible scenario
Anti-Tax Measure Wins
48% Chance
Newsom's endorsement gives business groups and moderate Democrats cover to oppose the 5% billionaire tax. With opponents already raising nearly $300 million, the most likely outcome is that voters cancel or reject the tax before it can take effect.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Finance +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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