Possible scenario
Ballot Fight Continues
15% Chance
The Newsom-backed cancellation effort does not immediately settle the contest, and both campaigns keep litigating ballot language, voter guides, and constitutional interactions. This scenario produces more political uncertainty than market-moving policy clarity.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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