Possible scenario
Race Becomes Toss-Up
16% Chance
Rather than settling quickly, the race becomes one of the cycle's highest-profile contests. Polling remains close, Kalshi liquidity rises, and both parties treat Texas as a late battleground.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Utilities -0.2%
Tickers
- VST-0.5%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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