Possible scenario
Abbott Recovers Lead
47% Chance
Greg Abbott remains the favorite despite the Hinojosa polling surprise, as Republican partisans consolidate and national GOP groups increase spending in Texas. Kalshi odds for Hinojosa stall below one-third and the race returns to a lean-Republican profile.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
Tickers
- XOM+0.3%
- KMI+0.3%
- VST+0.3%
- +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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