Possible scenario
Plan Collapses Slowly
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan remains formally alive but effectively non-operational. Netanyahu continues to insist on Israeli security control in Gaza, while Hamas and Arab governments reject terms that look like indefinite Israeli oversight.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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