Possible scenario
Framework Gets Rewritten
30% Chance
Washington concludes that the original proposal cannot pass Israeli, Palestinian, and Arab political tests. The Trump team works with Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE on a narrower sequencing plan focused first on hostages, aid access, and transitional policing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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