Possible scenario
Republicans Hold Narrowly
20% Chance
The Cook shift captures real Democratic momentum, but Republicans stabilize enough incumbents to keep a narrow majority. Mike Johnson remains the leading speaker candidate, though with another fragile conference and limited room for defections.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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