Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Builds
25% Chance
The Cook changes prove to be an early marker of a broader anti-Trump midterm wave. Democrats overperform in Biden-won suburbs, Latino-heavy swing districts, and several Republican-held seats previously viewed as safe.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.5%
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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