Possible scenario
Attrition Campaign Continues
45% Chance
Russia maintains a sustained campaign against Ukraine's power generation and transmission nodes, but the damage remains broadly within the pattern seen since late September. Ukrenergo and DTEK keep restoring capacity between strike waves, leaving households and industry facing rotating outages rather than a national grid collapse.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.