Possible scenario
Crackdown Stays Internal
45% Chance
Iran treats Ali-Sina Mostafavi’s execution primarily as a domestic deterrence case rather than a trigger for immediate cross-border retaliation. The IRGC Intelligence Organization and judiciary use the case to warn alleged Mossad collaborators after the June 2025 and September 2026 espionage prosecutions.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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