Possible scenario
Covert Retaliation Cycle
30% Chance
The execution feeds a renewed covert conflict rather than open warfare. Mossad, the IRGC, and Iran-backed networks intensify sabotage, arrests, cyber activity, and deniable attacks while both governments avoid formal acknowledgment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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