Possible scenario
Index Rule Contagion
25% Chance
MSCI's decision becomes a catalyst for other index providers to re-examine whether Bitcoin-treasury companies should remain in operating-company benchmarks. This would affect MicroStrategy most directly, with smaller read-through to other crypto-linked equities.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.2%
Tickers
- MSTR-6.0%
- COIN-1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.