Scenario description
Assume that by 2026-11-15 Russian border or maritime authorities carry out at least one additional official inspection, detention, or seizure of a Western-linked commercial cargo vessel in the Baltic Sea or Gulf of Finland after the reported Västerbotten detention. The vessel may be EU/UK/US-linked by flag, ownership, management, charterer, cargo interest, destination, or port call; the available evidence need not establish precise cargo volume, freight value, or insurance rate changes. This conditional world treats the new official action as the operational shock, with potential effects through delays, routing choices, port operations, charter-party performance, sanctions compliance, and marine war-risk or political-risk underwriting.