Scenario description
Assume that by 2026-11-15 Russian authorities escalate beyond a short inspection or same-day detention by formally seizing, arresting, or holding a Western-linked commercial vessel or its cargo in the Baltic Sea or Gulf of Finland, or by keeping such a vessel from resuming its voyage for more than 24 hours. The known magnitude can remain limited to a single ship if that is all the source evidence supports; unavailable cargo tonnage, charter exposure, and insurance premium changes should remain unspecified. This conditional world isolates a stronger maritime-security shock with more binding implications for vessel availability, port schedules, contractual performance, and sanctions-risk management.