Possible scenario
Limited AI Pause
28% Chance
The senators' intervention, following OpenAI and Anthropic warnings, could push the administration toward a narrow pause on the most advanced self-improving systems. This would be a sector-level policy shock for frontier AI, but not a full macro crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.4%
- Business Services -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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