Possible scenario
Talks Break Down
20% Chance
A less favorable but plausible outcome is that AI safety talks collide with export controls, rare earth leverage, and Taiwan security language. Markets would treat this as renewed U.S.-China escalation concentrated in technology, semiconductors, and supply chains.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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