Possible scenario
Federal Grid Compromise
35% Chance
Washington responds to the 2026 blockage wave with a targeted permitting and grid-reliability package rather than allowing a broad AI infrastructure freeze. The likely compromise links faster interconnection reviews to demand-response commitments, on-site generation, water disclosure, and payments for grid upgrades.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Utilities +0.7%
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- GEV+1.7%
- MSFT+1.2%
- NVDA+1.1%
- +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.