Expanded US-Israel Strikes

its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.7%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Washington and Jerusalem conclude that Iran’s decentralized military structure is designed for sustained retaliation and move to degrade launch capacity before it is used. This scenario creates a sharper escalation risk but still stops short of a declared full-scale war.

What it moves

Energy+3.8%
Industrials+3.8%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Expanded US-Israel Strikes

Keeping an eye on this scenario?