Possible scenario
Sustained Urban Attacks
20% Chance
The Houthis intensify long-range attacks to demonstrate that Saudi cities remain vulnerable despite the coalition's interceptions. This would represent a material security deterioration, though still short of a direct hit on major oil-export infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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