Possible scenario
Contained Border Exchanges
44% Chance
The most likely path is continued Houthi missile and drone launches met by Saudi-led interception and limited retaliation. Both sides preserve military pressure without crossing into a broader regional confrontation or materially disrupting oil exports.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- RTX+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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