Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
25% Chance
Moscow answers the Moscow-region strike with a larger campaign against Ukrainian power, rail, and defense-production targets. This is a plausible near-term response because the Kremlin has historically paired attacks on Russian territory with retaliatory salvos against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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