Possible scenario
Contained Drone Escalation
45% Chance
Ukraine continues large drone waves against Moscow and central Russian logistics, but Russia avoids a qualitatively new response. The conflict remains intense but geographically contained, keeping market reaction limited because investors have already priced a higher tempo of drone warfare.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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