Possible scenario
Scammers Rebuild Infrastructure
27% Chance
The seizure disrupts active phishing pages, but scam networks have historically rebuilt quickly by rotating domains, registrars and messaging channels. The most likely adaptation is a shift toward disposable domains, encrypted chats and faster wallet turnover rather than an immediate collapse of the fraud ecosystem.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.