Possible scenario
Republicans Hold Iowa
34% Chance
Ashley Hinson or another Republican nominee stabilizes the GOP coalition and keeps the open Joni Ernst seat in Republican hands. The party’s break with Trump over Iran limits Democratic gains among independents, while Iowa’s underlying red trend reasserts itself late in the campaign.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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