Possible scenario
Trial Advances
45% Chance
The transitional Syrian authorities keep Ali Kayali in custody and move the Al-Bayda and Baniyas massacre case into a formal criminal process. This is the most likely path because the September arrests of Assad-era officers suggest a broader effort to build legitimacy through high-profile accountability cases.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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