Possible scenario
Coastal Backlash
25% Chance
Kayali's arrest revives Alawite fears of collective punishment and triggers demonstrations or localized clashes along the Syrian coast. The March 2025 sectarian killings make this a credible risk, though the central government has incentives to contain violence quickly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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