Possible scenario
Upstream Bottleneck Deepens
20% Chance
The export decline becomes evidence that Algeria needs faster upstream investment to offset mature-field decline and meet both pipeline and LNG commitments. The outcome depends on whether Sonatrach can close deals with international oil majors on terms attractive enough to accelerate drilling.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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