Possible scenario
Kalshi Merits Victory
20% Chance
The courts ultimately side with Kalshi's view that federally regulated event contracts are not subject to state-by-state gambling bans. This would be the most disruptive outcome for the U.S. sports betting industry because it could create a parallel national market outside traditional sportsbook licensing.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Tickers
- DKNG-5.4%
- HOOD+4.2%
- FLUT-4.0%
- IBKR+1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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