Possible scenario
Selloff Stays Contained
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is a short-lived reset after the end of the six-year stability streak. Investors digest the inflation and Fed-hike implications, but orderly trading and resilient earnings expectations prevent a broader risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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