Scenario description
Assume that by 2026-11-15, the Ethiopia-Eritrea rupture escalates from diplomatic expulsions and accusations into direct interstate military action between Ethiopian and Eritrean state forces. The initiating event is a reported cross-border strike, artillery exchange, ground incursion, air or drone attack, naval/coastal action, or officially acknowledged combat involving Ethiopian and Eritrean regular forces or state-controlled security units. Known magnitude is limited to the reported incident count, locations, and casualties or damage stated by sources; if those figures are not available, they remain unspecified. The economic shock is the activation of interstate conflict risk around northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, and any named cross-border routes or logistics nodes rather than the pre-existing Ethiopia-TPLF fighting alone.