Scenario description
Assume that by 2026-11-15, Ethiopia, Eritrea, or both put into effect a binding operational restriction tied to the Oct. 1 diplomatic rupture, renewed Tigray fighting, or national-security allegations. The restriction applies to Ethiopia-Eritrea border crossings, overland freight, air links, customs processing, transit permits, consular services needed for movement, or named trade/transport categories involving Ethiopia and Eritrea. The reported order or implemented practice is in force for at least one full calendar day; exact cargo volumes, exemption lists, tariff-equivalent costs, and duration beyond the first day are not reported unless later sources specify them. The geography is the Ethiopia-Eritrea bilateral corridor and any directly named ports, crossings, airlines, customs offices, or logistics operators affected by the measure.